WCR Top 25 - March 14, 2023

World Club Rankings - Top 25 - March 14, 2023

UPDATE:  I will leave the analysis below alone because it remains valid, but we have decided to change the way that we are calculating the rankings.  Rather than relying on a single site, we have decided to use five reputable sites that are all using seemingly valid numbers and achieving different results.  We will continue to do this going forward.  

We will continue to use data from FiveThirtyEight, but also from Club ELO, Euro Club Index, Football Database, and Opta Power Rankings.  Each of these rankings will get equal weighting.  Points will be added up as follows:  For each site, a first place ranking will receive 25 points, a second place 24 points, a thrid place 23 points, all the way down to 25th place receiving one point.  Those points will then be added up to determine the WCR Top 25.  Because only three of the sites rank non-European clubs, non-European clubs will receive their total votes multiplied by 5/3 to attain an average of points from the three that include them and attribute that average to the other polls.  If clubs are tied for points, those ties will be broken by determining who was ranked higher on the majority of sheets.  With this in mind, here is the revised Top 25 for this week.

World Club Rankings - Top 25 - March 14, 2023

1.  Bayern Munich (Ger) (122 pts) (2 1st place votes) - Bayern is at number one after sweeping past Paris St. Germain to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals, a few days before topping Augsburg by a 5-3 score over the weekend in a match that wasn’t as close as the score might indicate.  In its quest to stay on top, Munich has tough matches on either end of the international break, beginning with Sunday’s visit to Bayer Leverkusen, who should provide a tough test.  There were thirteen goals scored in Bayern and Leverkusen’s combined matches this weekend so there could be some fireworks in this one.

2.  Manchester City (Eng) (121 pts) (3 1st place votes) - City are at number two in our rankings in a week which saw it battle Crystal Palace more closely than many have expected, but they still won 1-0, giving them 19 points in their last seven league matches.  This week, Manchester City will face RB Leipzig at home in a series that currently stands 1-1 as both teams look to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.  Speaking of quarterfinals, City will host Burnley in that round of the FA Cup on Sunday as both clubs enter the international break following the match.

3.  Real Madrid (Esp) (114 pts) - A 3-1 victory over Espanyol this weekend allowed Real Madrid to secure one of the most secure second place spots imaginable in La Liga, nine points away from first place and eight points away from third place.  The upcoming week, however, will provide a lot more excitement as Real will face two of the top six clubs in the world.  On Wednesday night, Liverpool comes to the Bernabeu for the second leg of a Champions League eighth-final draw, with Real Madrid holding a 5-2 advantage going in.  The competition just gets tougher on Sunday night as Real travels to Camp Nou to take on Barcelona in a last-ditch effort to have any prayer for a La Liga title.

4.  Barcelona (Esp) (104 points) - Barcelona continues to win and dominate in La Liga, but it can’t be called exciting.  Their 1-0 defeat of Athletic Bilbao over the weekend was their eighth 1-0 victory since the World Cup.  EIGHTH!!!  But they have all been victories, so they are comfortably atop the La Liga table.  As mentioned above, Barcelona could virtually guarantee a league title with a victory at home against Real Madrid Sunday night.  I’m sure they will be satisfied with a 1-0 victory.

5.  Arsenal (Eng) (104 points) - Arsenal drew 2-2 with Sporting CP in Lisbon in the first leg of their Europa League eight-finals matchup.  The Gunners followed that decision with a 3-0 victory over a good Fulham club in a match that wasn’t really even that close.  The return match with Sporting at Emirates will be Thursday and could prove tough against a good Portuguese team, though Arsenal will be heavily favored.  In the Premier League, they will follow up City with a home match against Crystal Palace on Sunday leading into the break.

6.  Napoli (Ita) (103 pts) - Napoli looked like Napoli this weekend, taking care of business with a 2-0 defeat of a very good Atalanta club to stretch its Serie A lead back up to 18 points with twelve matches remaining.  On Wednesday night, Frankfurt will come to Napoli to finish off their Champions League eighth-final series, with Napoli already holding a two goal lead.  Napoli will finish off their pre-break schedule with an early Sunday match at Torino.

7.  Liverpool (Eng) (97 pts) - Seriously, WTF is up with this team?  They appeared to have pulled things together for a push to a Champions League spot by picking up 13 points in their last five league matches, outscoring their opponents 13-0 in the process.  That included victories over Newcastle United and Manchester United.  After a 1-0 loss at Bournemouth this weekend, the Reds look like they’re reverting back to earlier season form.  And, if they thought Bournemouth was tough, wait until they get a load of Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, who already have a three goal advantage in the set.  That will be Wednesday night, and it will be Liverpool’s last match before the break as the tie against Fulham has been postponed to allow Fulham to participate in the FA Cup quarterfinals.

8.  Paris St. Germain (Fra) (90 pts) - PSG took three more points in a 2-1 weekend win over Brest in France’s Ligue 1 to give them a 10-point lead with eleven matches remaining in a race that is only vaguely more interesting that Italy’s Serie A.  Of course the bigger news was PSG’s 0-2 loss to Bayern Munich which saw it removed from European competition.  These facts combine to leave PSG basically playing the season out

9.  Manchester United (Eng) (78 pts) - The Manyoo team that beat by beloved Magpies in the League Cup final showed up against Real Betis on Thursday in a 4-1 Europa League eighth-final victory, but then that club that got annihilated by Liverpool came back and could manage only a 0-0 draw against lowly Southampton in Premier League action.  Which one will show up on Sunday against Fulham in the FA Cup quarterfinals?  I guess we will have to tune in to find out.

10.  RB Leipzig (Ger) (78 pts) - Leipzig bounced back from its Dortmund loss to defeat Borussia Monchengladbach 3-0 in weekend Bundesliga action to hold on to its third-place spot in the top German division table.  Tuesday night, Leipzig will be at Etihad Stadium and attempt to prove the pundits wrong by defeating Manchester City and advancing in the UEFA Champions League.  In domestic action, Leipzig will be on the road against relegation-challenged VfL Bochum on Sunday to finish out their pre-break schedule with an aging, battered lineup.  That series of matches continues on Sunday with a match against Rennes at Parc des Princes.

11.  Benfica (Por) (66 pts)

12.  Inter Milan (Ita) (66 pts)

13.  Chelsea (Eng) (63 pts)

14.  Borussia Dortmund (Ger) (58 pts)

15.  Atletico Madrid (Esp) (54 pts)

16.  Porto (Por) (46 pts)

17.  Tottenham Hotspur (Eng) (36 pts)

18.  Newcastle United (Eng) (35 pts)

19.  Juventus (Ita) (31 pts)

20.  AC Milan (Ita) (31 pts)

21.  Brighton (Eng) (28 pts)

22.  Ajax (Ned) (25 pts)

23.  Palmeiras (Bra) (16.7 pts)

24.  Union Berlin (Ger) (15 pts)

25.  RB Salzburg (Aut) (13 pts)

Also receiving votes:  Lille (Fra) (6), Celtic (Sco) (5), Brentford (Eng) (4), Eintracht Frankfurt (Ger) (4), Lazio (Ita) (4), Zenit St. Petersburg (Rus) (3), Real Betis (Esp) (3), Sporting CP (Por) (2), Real Sociedad (Esp) (2), Roma (Ita) (2), Villarreal (Esp) (1), SC Freiburg (Ger) (1)