Top 10 Matches - March 10-12 Weekend

This is one of those weird weekend anomalies in which the WCR Top 25 Clubs will be competing in 25 separate football matches.  Yes, that’s correct, there is not a single matchup of WCR Top 25 Clubs the entire weekend.

This is perhaps fitting in a weekend that falls between the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16.  There are enough great matchups taking place during the week both this week and next that the weekend can be spent as a warmup for the best football teams in the world.

This week, there are four matches in the Top Ten from England, three from Spain, two from Germany and one from Italy.  The highest ranking French match (Lille vs Lyon) came in twelfth place.  As last week, though, despite having the most matches in the Top Ten, the Match of the Week will take place on the continent.

As is our custom here, our list is based on power ratings and win probabilities determined by FiveThirtyEight, and it is their numbers that we will be using.  So, with so many matches every weekend, if you don’t know what to watch, let us help!!!

Top Ten Matches and Predictions - Weekend of March 10-12, 2023

1 - Athletic Bilbao vs (4) Barcelona (Esp)  (Sunday)

This is the matchup with the best combination of power ratings this weekend and could be fairly close.  Athletic Club hasn’t been in good form recently, but they are still only four points out of the final European spot in La Liga.  Barcelona has been winning more often, but hasn’t looked particularly good doing it.  Anything is possible in this match.  Prediction:  Athletic Bilbao 0 Barcelona 2.

2 - Leicester vs (12) Chelsea (Eng)  (Saturday)

Leicester City is only two points above relegation while Chelsea has advanced to the quarterfinals of the Champions League.  Doesn’t seem like this should be such a high-ranked match, does it?  Don’t judge too soon.  Chelsea is still far outside of European spots in the Premier League table, with FiveThirtyEight giving them less than a 1% chance of qualifying for next year’s UCL, unless they win it this year of course.  Will there be a let down for Chelsea after beating Dortmund mid-week?  We’ll see.  As for WCR, we are going for a tight match without a victory for either club.  Prediction:  Leicester 1 Chelsea 1

3 - (7) Napoli vs Atalanta  (Ita)  (Saturday)

This is a matchup of two talented Serie A teams who are both currently in European spots, with Napoli running away with the Serie A title, while Atalanta is in the Conference League position (sixth place) in the league.  I think Napoli is just too good to lose this one at home, though as we saw last week against Lazio, they can get distracted with such a big lead in the league and a Champions League fixture coming up soon.  I think they will return to scoring this week though and beat Atalanta handily.  Prediction:  Napoli 3 Atalanta 1.

4 - Girona vs (19) Atletico Madrid (Esp)  (Monday)

Girona is in the middle of the pack in which only twelve points separate Europe from relegation.  Atletico is currently in third place in La Liga, battling with Real Sociedad and Real Betis for the final two Champions League spot.  As usual, it will depend on which Atleti team shows up, but they haven’t lost to anybody but Real Madrid or Barcelona in their last sixteen matches, so I will bet on them.  Prediction:  Girona 1 Atletico Madrid 2.

5 - Wolfsburg vs Union Berlin (Ger)  (Sunday)

I know that Union Berlin is still in third place in the German Bundesliga and still have a chance at winning the title, and that Wolfsburg is sitting in eighth place, but Wolfsburg has a superior goal differential to Union Berlin and is playing at home, which I believe will give them an advantage over a Union Berlin club that may be starting to lose its confidence.  Prediction:  Wolfsburg 2 Union Berlin 1.

6 - Leeds United vs (10) Brighton (Eng)  (Saturday)

Leeds has lost three of their last four Premier League matches, and have only scored one goal during that time.  Meanwhile, Brighton has looked good recently and, with two matches in hand, are still in deep contention for a European spot next year.  Despite showing some inconsistency recently, Brighton has moved into the WCR Top Ten and we feel they will show up against Leeds this weekend.  Prediction:  Leeds United 1 Brighton 3.

7 - West Ham vs Aston Villa (Eng)  (Sunday)

Like the match between Leicester and Chelsea, this is a match with a team just above the relegation zone playing at home against a team with little fear of relegation and little hope for advancing to Europe next year.  West Ham, as bad as the numbers look, have lost only one match at home since the World Cup, with a 4-0 victory over Forest and a draw against Chelsea coming at home in the last two.  Even though Aston Villa has taken their last two matches, we believe the sense of urgency for the Hammers and the fact that they will be at home will take them to victory.  Prediction:  West Ham 2 Aston Villa 0.

8 - Werder Bremen vs (24) Bayer Leverkusen (Ger)  (Sunday)

These mid-table Bundesliga clubs should make a good matchup on Sunday.  Bayer Leverkusen is probably the better team, as demonstrated by their ranking, but they have been inconsistent.  Bremen, however, has suffered even more recently, having lost three of their last four.  I think both teams will score, but Leverkusen will score more.  Prediction:  Werder Bremen 1 Bayer Leverkusen 2.

9 - Fulham vs (9) Arsenal (Eng)  (Sunday)

This is a matchup of two very good teams, but one of them is clearly much better than the other.  Fulham still have hopes for Europe and have looked like a team that could accomplish that goal at times, but the consistency that is necessary to do so hasn’t been there.  Arsenal struggled a bit coming into the new year, but have won four straight Premier League matches.  These have come against middling to poor competition, but I will put Fulham in the “middling” camp and believe Arsenal should win this one handily.  Prediction:  Fulham 0 Arsenal 3.

10 - Mallorca vs Real Sociedad  (Esp)  (Sunday)

This match is reminiscent of the Girona/Atletico match discussed above, except Mallorca is a little ahead of Girona in the table and Sociedad is a little below Atletico.  FiveThirtyEight gives Real Sociedad a 40% chance of pulling away all three points and that sounds about right to me.  Neither of these teams score as much as the ones in the other matchup, though, so I will lower the score expectations.  Prediction:  Mallorca 0 Real Sociedad 1.