Top 10 Matches - March 3/4/5 Weekend

Lots of things can go into selecting the best matches of the week, and I am trying to do this as objectively as possible.  So, here is what I did.  I took all of the matches for this weekend and they received a score.  I went back to my resources from FiveThirtyEight.  I took the SPI rating for both teams in each match and added them together.  Then I multiplied that number by a factor of two plus the difference in the win probabilities for both teams - because closer matches are always better.  After some testing, this gave me results that I thought were appropriate.  I am using those numbers to determine the top ten matches of the week.

Top Ten Matches of the Week - Weekend of March 3-4-5

1.  (16) Borussia Dortmund vs (9) RB Leipzig (Ger) (Friday)

Despite having only one match in this week’s Top Ten, the German Bundesliga is far and away the best race among the Big Five.  There are currently five teams within five points of the lead and these are two of them.  Dortmund is tied with Bayern Munich in points, but second because of goal differential.  Leipzig is only four points behind.  Both clubs are playing very well at the moment, with Dortmund being slightly favored as the home team.

2.  (8) Liverpool vs (10) Manchester United (Eng) (Sunday)

Yet another highly-anticipated Northwest Derby.  United is coming off a few big victories over Barcelona and Newcastle United and still have an outside shot at taking the Premier League title.  Liverpool hasn’t looked nearly as well of late, but also have a recent victory over the Magpies in their not-too-distant past.  `FiveThirtyEight has Liverpool as moderate favorites for this one (48% to 30%), but I have a hard time seeing that result, even if they are playing at Anfield.

3.  Fiorentina vs AC Milan (Ita) (Saturday)

This is the match whose rank surprised me the most.  Milan is in third place in Serie A, level on points with second place Internazionale.  Fiorentina is sitting in twelfth place, closer to relegation than they are to Europe, but they are still showing up as a Top 40 club.  Milan is still favored 38% to 35%, but that margin makes this one promise to be one of the closest matches of the weekend.

4.  Real Betis vs (4) Real Madrid (Esp) (Sunday)

Real Madrid cannot afford to lose any points as it wants to threaten Barcelona for the league title.  Betis is comfortably in fifth place and still has a good shot to make a Champions League spot before the season is up.  Even on the road, Real Madrid is a 50% tp 26% favorite to take three points from this match, but the quality of the European cup contenders is enough to rank this match so high.

5.  Lens vs (23) Lille (Fra) (Saturday)

Lens has been struggling recently, with only one win in its last five matches, but it is still only two points out of second place in a tight race for France’s three Champions League spots.  Lille finds itself in the Top 25, and it has won three of its last four, with the only loss during that time being the tremendous 3-4 loss to PSG a few weeks ago.  Lens (40%) is a slight favorite over Lille (34%) in a match that promises a lot of excitement.

6.  (22) Roma vs Juventus (Ita) (Sunday)

This matchup is always a classic.  Roma is currently in fifth place in Serie A, but only three points out of second and with a game in hand.  Juventus has struggled mightily this season, but they have won their last three Serie A matches and both of these clubs are heading into the Europa League eighth-finals.  In Stadio Olimpico, Roma are comfortable favorites, but Juventus has the talent to take this one if Roma is not careful.

7.  (2) Manchester City vs (14) Newcastle United (Eng) (Saturday)

When I spoke of the formula for setting up this list above, I noted that the first step was to add the SPI ratings of both clubs.  By that part of the formula, this would be the highest rated match.  City is battling to win the Premier League, while Newcastle, though currently struggling, is still competing for a top four spot.  That being said, Manchester City is such a heavy favorite to win (64% to 15% as of Tuesday) that this match cannot appear but so high on the list.  That being said, if the Magpies can find a way to finally start scoring again, this match could be the best of the lot.

8.  Rennes vs Marseille (Fra) (Sunday)

Rennes is currently in fifth place in Ligue 1, six points behind second place Marseille.  Rennes is coming off of back-to-back victories over mid-Ligue 1 sides, while Marseille may feel the need to prove itself after getting blasted by Paris St.-Germain on Sunday, which resulted in it falling out of the WCR Top 25.  The bookmakers have this one as a toss-up, with Marseille (39%) having only a slight advantage over the home team (36%).  Should be fun.

9.  Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao (Esp) (Sunday)

Both of these clubs are in contention for a spot in the Conference League next year, with an outside shot at the Europa League for both.  What makes this game so interesting is that both clubs have a good shot at winning it.  The home team Vallecano is the current favorite at 38% to 32%, but it’s hard to count out Athletic Club even though both clubs have struggled recently.

10.  (12) Brighton vs West Ham (Eng) (Saturday)

While everybody has focused on Newcastle and Fulham doing better than expected and on Chelsea and Liverpool doing worse than expected, Brighton has quietly moved themselves into position to compete for a European spot.  Meanwhile, West Ham has been hovering just above the relegation zone, but they have picked up points in three of their last four matches, including draws against Newcastle and Chelsea.  The bookmakers have Brighton as very comfortable favorites for this one, with both clubs having a lot to play for at this point in the season.